#112 Win in Any Market | Patrick Precourt
Win in Any Market | Patrick Precourt breaks down how real estate investors can stay profitable during uncertainty without getting reckless. Patrick Precourt explains why most investors don’t fail from lack of information, but from fear, emotional decision-making, and losing belief when the “real work” starts. He covers how to adapt strategies as markets shift, why turning off marketing is the worst move for professionals, and how empathy + negotiation become the real edge when sellers are stuck on yesterday’s prices. The episode closes with what Patrick would focus on first if he had to rebuild from scratch—and why the “top of the bottom third” stays the safest buyer zone in downturns.
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Show Transcription:
Patrick Precourt (00:00):
If you’re a professional, meaning that you do this as your primary source of income, you’re a professional, right? This is not the time to run high. This is the time to turn it up, but not recklessly very strategically. It wasn’t about the knowledge of the teaching or the training or the coaching that we’re providing. It was about the individual. You start something, you commit to it, you get excited about it, you go all in that first week, 10 days, then all of that excitement wears off, the motivation wears off and you drop down. And then the real work sets in. All of those fears become right in front of us and we don’t have the fight to get through it. So we quit. Laziness does not feel good, and we innately want to feel good every day. Jesus does not feel good. Lack of productivity does not feel good. We let too many of our decisions be persuaded by what we think they think about us. We train ourselves to operate at a much higher level with a lot more stress. And
Noah Kesslin (00:56):
Welcome to the podcast. Patrick, thank you so much for coming on. I know you’ve been in real estate since the late nineties and do a lot with the brain and how it works and what challenges are going into it. Real estate’s weird right now and a lot of people are scared, A lot of people are worried, a lot of people are trying to shift and pivot. What’s the main thing that you’re seeing in real estate right now, but not only real estate, but real estate investors?
Patrick Precourt (01:22):
Yeah, good question Owen, and thanks for having me on the show. And you’re right. So I have a background in real estate going back to the nineties. We’ve done literally well over a thousand transactions that time. But I focus my time now working with investors on getting this part straight so they can get that part straight. How to do real estate is not, that’s not where the magic lies because everybody gets that and that information’s readily available. But actually doing the work, the hard work when you got to do it is where we struggle. And I’d love to talk a little bit about that, particularly as it relates to now there’s a lot of fear in the air, there’s a lot of confusion, there’s a lot of lack of certainty as to what’s happening, what’s going on. There’s a lot of non-professional opinions being thrown around as professional. All of that stuff’s happening, which is true. And if there’s someone listening right now that’s just a little concerned, a little fearful of what’s next, lemme share this with you, no matter what, real estate only goes one way over time up, and it’s fundamentally impossible for that to happen any other way. So even if you make a mistake, time will heal your mistake if you can bear the time. So just let’s appreciate that fact. You know what I mean? Even if you go back to, so a big core of our business was short sales from the early two thousands to about 2012. We got into it long before short sales was even like a buzzword and got out of it when it got overtaken by legislation and rules and regulation and stuff like that. But even if you bought at the peak back then, terrible investment, way more than the house is worth the amount of appreciation you’ve had since that point of that high purchase. You have great equity in your house, and that’s a true story. Time will heal problems. So let’s use that as a kind of a barrier between the pain that we think we’re going to feel getting involved with real estate. The risk right now, truth is real estate cycles that it always has, it always will, and it will always recover higher than it was prior. That’s never, ever, ever not happened. Okay? That’s just a truth. And inarguable, the only real question is how long does it take and can you weather the storm? And with that said, I would now switch gears and say this is not a time to be reckless. Meaning, yeah, if you’ve been in the business, say for 10, 12 years or less, Noah, the principles you learned about investing in real estate may be obsolete now because you’ve been on a increase the entire time. So no matter what you did, the market fixed your mistakes and it made you feel that what you were doing is correct because you were making money, but you don’t know for certain if it was what you were doing or the market just made up for the gap. You see the difference there. So you bring up the word pivot, I’ll use a slightly different one. We just have to adapt to the changing environment around us. We’re still real estate investors. We’re still going to invest in real estate. We’re not going to hide, we’re not going to shelter ourselves out of fear. We’re going to take advantage of the chaos. In chaos. There’s always greater opportunity than when there’s no chaos. So think about that for a second. When there’s chaos, the opportunities go up. They don’t go down. The challenge is because humans rely so much uncertainty for just feeling good in the uncertainty of chaos, we run and hide. So now we have two types of people. We have those of you who’d rather shelter this one out, and that’s fine. But there’s that group of you who want to make big leaps in a short period of time. And that opportunity is coming up in front of you right now because of the uncertainty and the chaos in the market. So for those of you who have been in real estate for say less than 12 years just started, first off, congrats that you’re still in it. Awesome. But here’s the truth of it. What worked for the last 12 years may be obsolete today. And the challenge is because we’ve been in such a rising market for the past 10, 12, 15 years, you don’t even know what actually works or what worked because the market saved your ass. And that’s just the truth of it. And this is what I mean by we’re going to have to adapt. The last thing I would tell you though is run and hide. I love markets like this where everybody else is fearful. I love all the negative press that goes out there. It does work in our favor. However, we’ve got to be smarter. We’ve got to stay on our game. We’ve got to look at strategies that work in the changing environments that we’re going into. Does that make sense, Noah?
Noah Kesslin (05:44):
Yeah, for sure. I mean, I feel like even a couple years ago, real estate, everyone was like, it’s so easy. I mean, you can wholesale a house so you can make a million mistakes and still make a bunch of money. So yeah, for sure this
Patrick Precourt (05:56):
Is, and people did, and that’s fine. And congratulations, and I’m not knocking at all I’m saying is be prepared to adapt to what’s happening because things are changing. Now you say, well Pat, if the market’s going south, where’s the plus? Where’s the upside in? There’s a couple things. Number one, you knock what I call all the day traders out of the business, all the ones and twos that they just try. And it works not because of them, because the market allowed it to work, but they don’t have a business, they don’t have a plan. They don’t have the guts to go into a chaotic market. Although collectively, because there’s so many of these individuals, they take a big chunk of the business, they’re all going to get cleared out, and they always do. It’s a washing. So that’s one of the upsides, and it’s beautiful. So it leaves more for you, which is fantastic. And then the other side, and this isn’t, I’m not selling this as a good thing, but it’s a factor of the market. When the economy shifts, which is shifting, people have bigger problems. Now, truthfully, they can’t afford mortgages, they can’t afford the regular bills. They have other problems that are more significant than the retention of their house. And therefore the opportunities to find genuinely motivated sellers. And again, I’m not saying this is a good thing, it’s not a good thing, but as it relates to finding deals in the market, it will create more opportunities in deal finding than we’ve had in the past. Fundamentally, in the end, looking backwards, if you say, well, we’re in a market where anybody could sell a house above market value because there’s such a demand, why would you even need a realtor? Nevermind a real estate investor to do that, right? So when you look at the contrast now, it’s like, well, a house is complete. The maintenance has been very much deferred, it’s cluttered. The people have no money to even move their crap out of it. Realtor can’t even sell the house as is now. You become the only option to them.
Patrick Precourt (07:53):
That make sense? And now you got to look back and say, okay, what strategies have I learned that could apply to solving this problem over here? But the big awakening is the adjustment in prices that we’re going to have to get to right away, meaning that the consumer market always adjusts later than the actual price. So they’ll still see Zillow’s yesterday value trying to apply it to today’s real value of their house. And this is where your skills are going to matter more. And again, this is where the pretend investor is going to fall down. This is where genuine negotiating skills, empathetic skills are going to come into play and you’ll make your money selling to the homeowner that, no, the house real value is here, and I can still solve your problem here, but I can’t solve it if we’re hung up on this price. That right there, that conversation, those who master that are going to do very, very well in this coming shift that we’re going into.
Noah Kesslin (08:51):
For those investors, a lot of ’em that are thinking, oh, I need to turn my marketing. I need to shut off this. I need to fire everyone. I need to stay lean. What would you say to those people that are really freaking out?
Patrick Precourt (09:04):
Yeah, good question. So again, each case is individual, right? But I’ll just say if you’re a professional, meaning that you do this as your primary source of income, you’re a professional, right? This is not the time to run high. This is the time to turn it up, but not recklessly very strategically. Remember, a lot of the day, traders are going to get wiped out. There’s going to be less people competing for more properties. This is the worst time in the world to turn things off out of fear. Now, I’m not saying just recklessly throw money at marketing. What I’m saying is be very strategic about it. Be very intelligent in your marketing. This is one thing I’ve noticed about people and I live in the northeast, and let’s put most people up here at jackasses anyways, myself included. Okay? And that’s nicely put, right? So they don’t buy the fluff. However, if your marketing messages are clear and concise and show true value to the homeowner, exactly what they’re looking for, this is the old, you got to put yourself into the conversation that they’re already having in their mind about their solution. If you can pull that off, you’ll get their attention. Your marketing will land and they’ll reach out and you’ll start the conversation. So again, the skillset is it’s not, you need more real estate investment tools. You need more psychology skills and genuine empathy and genuine trying to solve people’s problems before you get a paycheck kind of approach. People will still see right through your desire to make it all about your pocketbook when in fact, if you can go in and say, no, Noah, I got your problem. I’m going to solve it and here’s my solution for it. And that becomes your 100% focus. If we solve their problem, we’ll get paid. And that’s always how the game works. Our paycheck is directly relative to the size of their problem that we solve for them. Better we’re at that, the more paychecks that we’ll get. But we’ve got to start making this all about them.
Tony Javier (11:01):
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Noah Kesslin (11:42):
I think in sales in general, if the prospect feels that you have more into the solution than they do, they’re never going to buy from you or in case sell to us. So I definitely agree with you there. What got you so inspired to go onto the more psychology based of it, because I know you’re big into helping entrepreneurs mentally and your retreats and everything. What got you so excited about it and passionate about it?
Patrick Precourt (12:14):
Yeah, good question. And people ask all the time, well, pat, what do you do? I mean, effectively I turned potential into performance to performance into a profit. That’s the two bridges we crossed. What got me into it, real estate investment for a long time, real estate education for a long time and a very large educational platform had thousands of students. And in that time though, I realized that there’s a very few percentage wise, there’s very few, very small percentage of people who actually got the results or were successful with the information and knowledge of training and the coaching that our teams were providing. And I realized it wasn’t about the knowledge of the teaching or the training or the coaching that we’re providing. It was about the individual. And that’s a true story. Our product was excellent, and anybody who applied it could succeed, but very few applied it. So it’s kind of pulled me over to focusing on why does Noah do it, but Pat doesn’t let me figure out that formula and spend some time in there. In that time, I opened a gym called the Cages, the lifestyle fitness center with the heart and culture of our martial arts. And I use that as a human laboratory to test out behavioral constructs to get people to change behavior, to produce desired results. So this is what I found. Most people know what they want, they deeply desire it, they know what’s good for them, and they know how to get it, and they don’t do the work. Health and fitness is a perfect example. That’s why it worked out so perfect. Everybody wants to lose weight, gain muscle, whatever they know what they have to do, move their body and eat better food. It’s not that hard. They know it’s good for them and know they’ll live longer, they’ll feel better, they have higher energy levels, be sick less often, the whole nine yards, yet they can’t get themselves to consistently execute the behavior. That’s my expertise in that space right there. And the gym just became a way to test out construct and behavioral changes to understand why people do what they do and why they don’t do what they do. And we became known as the gym that gets people results. And we charge people extraordinary amounts of money for our highest level programs. Our highest level programs are about 600 bucks a month, but they’re guaranteed results. We would guarantee them the outcome or we’d give ’em all their money back, but we’re that good getting people results because it wasn’t, it’s just not hard. And it’s not about the, like I said, the trainers or the equipment or the classes, none of that. It’s about what does it take to get Noah to do what he wants to do and wants the results of? And then that gets into the psychology of peak performance. And that’s, to answer your question, there was a migration over probably 15 years of moving into this space and studying it and then testing out in the gym and then going into the space of just personal development, business coaching and so forth, because all the same rules apply in small business. How to be successful in small business is just not that hard. How to make money in small business is just not that hard. But we default to, I’m not making the money, therefore I must need more information. I must need more knowledge. I must need another podcast, another book, another home study course, another seminar when in fact, that’s not it at all. What you need is more action in alignment with the outcome that you want to see happen. So I call this as the process of the do have in order to have something we don’t currently have. We got to do stuff we’re not currently doing, which means you got to become someone. We’re not yet Noah. And that’s the process. Who do I need to become today in order to move towards that outcome? So today, who do I got to become to do the things that are in direct alignment with who I got to become to produce those results? Does that make sense?
Noah Kesslin (16:04):
Yeah, for sure. Well, I think the main, yeah, yeah. Well, I think the main thing is most people want the outcome without having to do it, which stems from the laziness of human beings, myself included sometimes. I mean, no running from that, what do you think the main thing that stops people from doing the things they need to get the results? What’s the main piece that you see?
Patrick Precourt (16:30):
Yeah, so I don’t think it’s laziness and my evidence towards that is only anecdotal in that thousands of people, but I don’t think it’s laziness. What I think is initially it starts out there’s a lot of fear-based resistance and fears. Fundamentally, all fears is anchored in one thing, not knowing. So now that brings up lots of different fears, fear of failure, judgment loss, fear of what other people think of you. Like all of those fears become overwhelming. And once overwhelm sets in, we shut down, we stop action. So I think fear-based resistance is where it begins, but that’s one thing. But now it gets layered in. You start something, you commit to it, you get excited about it, you go all in that first week, 10 days, then all of that excitement wears off, the motivation wears off and you drop down. And then the real work sets in. And when real work sets in, all of those fears become right in front of us and we don’t have the fight to get through it. So we quit and then we repeat that pattern to the next thing, finally gets us excited, but eventually know what happens. And this is the ultimate answers. Eventually what happens is we lose faith in ourselves. It’s no longer about the product or the technique or the blueprint. That’s a perfect blueprint, but I don’t believe that I’ve got it in me anymore to do it because I failed so many times. And it happens at a subconscious level. Does that make sense? So the failure is not about the thing. The failure is about a lack of belief in our own willingness and efforts that we’re going to do the ones, we’re going to be the ones who do the work. And that’s a big one. That’s why when and if anything, there’s people who provide services or out there, I’d suggest that you never leave this unaddressed with your potential clients. What do you do that will change their behavior outside of just providing another product? That’s a question that service providers and product providers have got to start answering and addressing upfront. Hey, you know what? Yeah, our product’s great. Yes, it works perfect. Yes, it will work if you work it. But here’s the thing, what I really focus on is I increase the likeliness that you’ll succeed and this is how I do that for you. We got to start addressing that part of the equation. And once somebody see, they start out with the I belief that no, that product you have for me, it’s great product, but it’s just not going to work because I’m not going to do the work. Right? Once it goes from that to, alright, this is possible, that’s all we need. And the human soul comes alive at the belief that the outcome is possible and we will run through brick walls if we know the outcome that we so deeply desire is possible, but if we don’t believe it’s possible, that makes it impossible, man, we can’t even get our ass out of bed in the morning.
Noah Kesslin (19:36):
Yeah, that’s a good point because I said laziness, but it all stems from not thinking.
Patrick Precourt (19:43):
It masquerades laziness. Yes, it masquerades as laziness, but I don’t think it’s laziness, that’s a word. Laziness does not feel good. And we innately want to feel good every day. Laziness does not feel good. Lack of productivity does not feel good. Then because we feel bad now we got to distract feeling bad, and now we go into all of our pre-wired distraction processes, whether it be on the internet, whether it be booze or weed or whatever it may be. But now we distract and what we’re distracting from is a feeling of feeling bad because we didn’t perform copy all that. So it layers up really quick.
Noah Kesslin (20:27):
Yeah, for sure. What do you think the biggest mistake that you’re seeing right now with investors from a mental side or a business side, what do you think the biggest mistake is right now?
Patrick Precourt (20:42):
So this is not just investors, this is across the board and this falls in the space of eq, emotional intelligence, right? Two things. One, we let too many of our decisions be persuaded by what we think they think about us, Which is none of our freaking business, and we shouldn’t give a shit at all what we think they think about us. So instead of doing what we want to do or what we know we should do, we’re so worried about what others are going to think of us. That’s number one. And then number two is letting our emotions steer the ship instead of letting our critical thinking, meaning that when we get scared or we get angry, fearful, we let those emotions drive decision making, decision making action, taking action, taking results instead of letting our critical brains make the decisions for us. And it’s listen, every stimulus input results in an emotion and that hits us before our thinking does. So we feel it before we think it. Does that make sense? And we don’t have the EQ to stop, pause, think about what we’re thinking about. And if that thought is not in alignment with results, we want to stop change to thinking which we can do. We’re the only mammal on earth that can actually do that. Dogs you piss off, a dog gets angry, it just bites you, it doesn’t think about it. It reacts to the input. We can respond. And it’s a trained skill. It’s not innate to us, it’s something we can practice and learn. But it starts with becoming aware of the emotional triggers on the outside. What is the trigger? What is the resulting emotion? And then stop, pause, manage this emotion, meaning don’t just react to it, respond to it. And then down the road, when we get good at that, now we can actually remap triggers, meaning attach new meaning to the triggers. So they don’t mean something harmful or disruptive. They mean something that serves us. And that’s another side of emotional intelligence. But that’s right there, letting think about how manipulative politicians are and they use two of the strongest emotions, fear and anger, and they work. Look how well they work. Noah. People just react, react, react, react. They don’t think, and that’s the society we’re in. So you want to step above the masses, right? Focus on that one thing right there. Well stop caring about what you think people think of you. And number two, focus on your own emotional intelligence rise above where the masses sit. It’s not that hard. The bar is pretty damn low.
Noah Kesslin (23:28):
Yeah, fair enough. I’d love for you to talk about your workshops, the weekend warrior workshops. I’d love for you to talk about it just a little bit, what you do, why and what the outcome is of someone who goes.
Patrick Precourt (23:45):
Yeah, so we do a few different things. We do some for men and women and we separate ’em and there’s reasons why, but we have one, it’s called the elite edge experience up in the mountains of Colorado, completely off grid, so no internet or anything like that. And I have a couple special operations forces guys that run this with me. Effectively what we do is this one’s for men. We put men in elevated environments, mentally and emotional environments, forcing them to critically make fast, clear decisions for the success of the team that they’re working on. And at the end result is we train ourselves to operate at a much higher level with a lot more stress and duress than we would ever do in our normal lives. We open ourselves up to just to begin to see what we’re capable of. It’s hard to explain in words no how much it expands. Fans are human, so we are subject to complacency in our everyday life. We settle for where we’re at and sometimes that settling can snowball once we reach a certain level of comfort and we start protecting our comfort zones, which really is a very destructive process. And I push us outside of this. So it’s not like a support group. It’s a very disruptive group where, and it’s not a physical challenge either. It’s a physically challenging cause we’re in the mountain to Colorado, but We go through a variety of different exercises and challenges, if you will, that really test what’s going on between the years and it’s not easy. And that’s the idea. So one of the foundations of everything I do is testing ourselves with hard to what’s hard? Well that’s a very subjective word, but the idea is to raise your level of hard meaning. What if we can make everyday life easy? Knowing you do that is train hard. So what you experience in everyday life becomes very easy. Yet if you take the soft life and you pick the easy way out and you don’t deal with hard things, then every day in your life gets very hard. It’s just the opposite. It’s just like training a muscle. Then we do the same thing with women and women. We do virtually in a online form, but it’s very similar to the same process. And we are going to add a live women’s group. I just, there’s logistics to it. It’s kind of raw where we are in Colorado, I don’t quite figure it out. Some bathroom situations and stuff like that. So we do very similar things. And then so we take the same principles to, and we go over into the corporate space. And I’ll be honest, it gets mixed reviews because corporate USA can be very patterned and always looking for the path of least resistance. And we come to very disruptive and say the path of lease resistance is the worst path to take. You’ve got to take the resistance path here. We’ve got to train you to operate at higher levels. We have this program called business performance engineering where we engineer behavior to produce higher levels of output. And again, it comes from the, it’s not motivation, it’s not leadership, it’s not culture. Those are all pieces that come out of it, but it’s engineering behavior to produce higher production, if you will. And there are skill sets that every human being should be practicing on a daily basis anyways. So we do that for corporate USA as well.
Noah Kesslin (27:10):
That’s awesome.
Patrick Precourt (27:11):
Yeah,
Noah Kesslin (27:12):
I asked this question on every podcast and I’m really, really excited to hear what you have to say about it. When it comes to the word success, everyone’s got their own definition for it. Everyone’s got their own meaning for it and everyone strives for it differently in their day to day. How do you define success? How do you strive for it in your day-to-day and what does it mean to you?
Patrick Precourt (27:34):
Yeah, good question. And you’re right, it’s very subjective. So you can’t describe or define success as monetary or physical belongings or anything like that. And some people say financial independence, well, is this successful to reach financial independence and be contemplating suicide every single day? Is that successful? And the answer is no. So no, you can’t use money or financial independence the way I define it, because it’s the ultimate measure of the quality of life that you experience is what I call an inner peace will contrast that a little with the word happiness, right? Because happiness is a goal, an objective, everybody wants to be happy. And then you hear off, well, happiness is an inside gig. In fact, it is not because it’s controlled by external stimulus. If your grandma dies, you’re going to be sad and that’s okay. An emotion, we should experience sadness and happiness. If we didn’t experience sadness, we could never experience happiness. You wouldn’t have the contrast. So it’s okay for them to go up and down. That’s on the outside. And the inside is an inner piece. So look at it like this, Noah, look at it like an ocean and you got a big ship up on a sea top here, but down below you have a submarine. Okay, big old submarine. When a seas are calm, the ship’s nice and calm, that’s your happiness, everything’s fantastic. But when it gets really stormy, that ship gets its butt kicked. And that’s kind of when you might be sad, but the submarine doesn’t change one bit steady, even keel, smooth as can be. So to me, success is having an even keeled submarine all the time. What happens is when this is, you’ve got that grounding inside, you can deal with anything on the surface. When you’re disrupted internally like that, when that inner peace does not exist, then what’s happening up there is an absolute disaster. It’s a storm all the time. So to me, success is living life where you have an inner peace that’s just man, you can’t shake it. It’s just constantly there. And you’ve met people like that right away. They’re different, they’re calm, they’re collective, they’re, they’re not dramatic there. That to the definition of success.
Noah Kesslin (30:03):
That’s awesome. Obviously we’ve talked about it a couple times, there’s a lot of onesies and twosies in this business and then there’s top operators. What do you think the main thing besides maybe deal volume that really separates the top operators from the onesie twosies
Patrick Precourt (30:21):
Action would be number one, their relationship with failure. Meaning they understand that failure is not failing until you quit. That’s the capital F failure. But the small F failure that we talk about all the time, whether it be a deal or something else, right? You either fail or you grow, meaning either win or you grow, sorry, that’s the small F failure either win or you grow and there’s no other outcome. The capital F is when you quit, so they see failure with the small F. That’s just part of the process. And the quicker we stack up these small failures, the quicker we will win. And that’s a true story as well. So it’s constant forward action, but the action is not reckless, it’s calculated and it’s a constant, alright, what do we learn? What do we learn? What do we learn? What do we learn? What do we learn? What do we can do it better next time? And they don’t stop and think about all the top operators that they do not stop, they’re high producing, they keep going.
Noah Kesslin (31:24):
As far as real estate goes in the state we’re in now, we’ve talked about it quite a bit, but when it comes to the biggest challenges you’re seeing currently, a lot of people are saying it’s hard right now to find deals. It’s hard right now. It’s so competitive. My market, which is interesting. You said something earlier which really, I mean kind of shed a light to it, is the onesies and twosies are going away. A lot of people are don’t.
Patrick Precourt (31:50):
They’re going to be wiped out, they’re going to head to the hill, they’re going to go start trading crypto again. Don’t worry about them.
Noah Kesslin (31:56):
They’re dwindling for sure. It almost seems like people are just kind of throwing excuses out there. What do you think the main challenge is in real estate right now?
Patrick Precourt (32:07):
It’s probably the psychological gap between what houses were worth and what they are worth now and what they will be worth shortly. It’s a tough one, just to be fair. That landing strip right there is, we’ve got to get through that. And that’s why I said Real estate where my primary business right now, I’d be focusing on the psychology that’s going on in that seller’s head, right about they got a big problem that needs to be solved. They’re going through a dramatic event in their lives, which sucks, but it is what it is and how do I get them to their ultimate goal, which is this problem solved and understanding how to communicate with sellers. Not very many people are good at this, and it’s a true story. Just understanding that anger, sadness, denial, acceptance, the sequence that people go through when they’re in a traumatic situation, a sense of trauma and being able to identify where they are by the words they choose, and your message meeting where they’re at, not where you want them to be, but where they’re at. Now, some people are great at this, but most aren’t, and that will get you through this period of time. They still need a solution. Very few people are qualified to talk to them to provide the solution because they said there’s a value gap that’s going to take a little while to get it goes like this. Prices start to adjust based on the buyer’s behaviors in the regular markets. And then the news really starts amping up everything that sucks, right? And after that’s happened for a long enough period of time, and then we have new data where we’re, again, this is the news trickling in saying, oh, look at the amount of house value lost and all that kind of stuff. Now consumers start to get it, but that could be a few months, that could be half a year for that cycle to transpire. A lot of things play into, and here we are in the middle of holiday season too, which means there’s so much other messaging going on that convolutes everything I just talked about.
Noah Kesslin (34:24):
And then there’s all sorts of stuff distracting them like Black Friday and Christmas and all this stuff. So for sure, a hundred percent. It’s an interesting time right now, so I’m going to be very intrigued to hear your answer on this. Next question. If you were to restart today, I know you do a little bit of investing now still, but let’s say you were, everything that you’re doing currently investment wise is gone. You keep all the knowledge that you’ve had over the last, since the nineties, businesses are all gone. You’re going to restart a flakes and flip or wholesale, whichever one you prefer. Company today, what would you focus on first?
Patrick Precourt (35:11):
Yeah, that’s a really good question though. So I’d go back to some very simple principles in, if you go back to 2008 or nine, I think was, we sold the least amount of houses historically in our last 30 years. It was like 4.6 million homes or something where normally we’re at a cell rate of like 5.8 or something like that, 6 million, something like that. That means that six houses on the street still sold Noah, okay? That’s the part that people fail to remember. The market didn’t die. It had a major adjustment, but still four out of six homes on the streets sold. Okay. Now what? Home sold, they weren’t the executive homes, they weren’t the move up homes. They were the bottom third of any market. And I would focus first on the top of the bottom third. So this is, could be first time home buyers, but primarily that blue collar space that, you know what? When the economy goes up, economy goes down. It doesn’t change their life. They show up, they work hard, they get a paycheck on Friday, they go to the bar, have a couple of beers at the end of the day, and they’re with their family over the weekend. They don’t have stock market, they don’t give a shit about any of that kind of stuff. This is who they are and how they operate. And as the rest of the world is burning down, they’re just living their lives doing what they do. Their regular life is a bit of struggle to begin with, and the struggle hasn’t gotten any worse. This is their life, and they buy housing because they need shelter. And that that’s when you look at the bulk of the financing during the tough times, FH, a financing, and we have a special program called CHFA here in Connecticut. That money’s still there and still flowing, easy peasy, and they’re going to qualify for it the exact same way. That is always the biggest buyer market all the time. And I would focus all of my energies into that space. Now, how could I do that? Could you do a fix and flip? But you know what? I might be a little cautious there depending on my cash reserves and things like that, because again, we have a little uncertainty, and again, how long you’re going to be holding a property, and if you have to take out hard money, you’re going to bear that debt. You’ve really got to get your numbers really, really clean on this. You’re future casting now what tomorrow’s house is going to sell for based on your two or three months early. And I’d also offer this. We used to do what we call futures. When we did comps, comps look backwards, backwards doesn’t work anymore. We have to be looking forward. And the way you start that is you have to compare the house you’re at to what else is on the market in your price range right now, and make adjustments going forward. Not using this to these prices. They’re not going to go up for a while, and that’s just, we’ve got to be a little smarter on how we calculate values. But the safe spot has always been in the top of the bottom third. That’s where the money is and where the money is. That’s where the buyers are, and that won’t change. Now, the strategies, the safest would be getting options on properties and selling options. That’d be easy peasy, simple to do. It doesn’t run in conflict with a lot of the laws that have come up with around wholesaling, right? Selling an option is way different than selling a contract and so forth and so on. But everybody check their own state to make sure, but depending on your cash reserves, I’d go from staying as risk-free as possible, and then I move into buying and fixing up and flipping in there. There’ll be good opportunities there, but make sure your cash is in order and you’re not overextending yourself with financing on it, but the market is still the same, top of the bottom third.
Noah Kesslin (39:02):
Gotcha. Awesome. Awesome. What drives you personally to keep innovating and helping people succeed? I would say investors, but just people in general. I mean, you’re
Patrick Precourt (39:14):
A basic rule in life, and I know you innately know this. You may never have heard it verbalize, but when you elevate someone, it’s impossible for you not to be on that same elevator ride yourself. I’ve learned that and proved that out a thousand times over, so I don’t even have to ask what’s in it for me, because I know already I win every, and the further I elevate them, the more it brings me up too. That’s it. And that’s just at the root cause of everything that I do all the time. I spend a lot of time going into groups and podcast things like this and just talking and spreading information for no other reason. I know there’s at least one person at this, something I say will alter the trajectory that they’re on, and they’re going to be in a better place tomorrow than they work today. I know that every single time of that exception, and that amps me up. That’s exciting to me.
Noah Kesslin (40:12):
I’ve never heard it verbalized like that, but that was,
Patrick Precourt (40:16):
But you know it to be true,
Noah Kesslin (40:18):
And it’s easy to think that way. Once you say it out loud, it’s easy to comprehend that. Very easy. Wow. Well, awesome. How can people find out more about you? How can people learn about you? If someone is interested in your weekend in Colorado or just training in general? Where can people find you?
Patrick Precourt (40:41):
Yeah. Easiest place is just like on Facebook or Instagram. There’s only two Patrick pre quarts, one’s my son and one’s me. You’ll know the different, but really I’m very responsive in dms and stuff like that. Super easy to find there, Noah. Yeah, and if anybody’s interested in any of this stuff or if you have groups that you want me to come and do presentations, I do a lot of different types of presentations. They’re all types of groups from youth groups all the way up to, like I said, professional leadership teams in large corporate organizations, so the whole gamut.
Noah Kesslin (41:13):
Awesome. Patrick, thank you so much for coming on and talking with us and spreading your wealth of knowledge. Everyone thank you for listening and we will see you next time. Appreciate it. Bye bye.
